Professor Patrick Minford

Biography

I am a macroeconomist holding the chair of Applied Economics at Cardiff University where I direct the Julian Hodge Institute of Applied Macroeconomics, which publishes forecasts and analysis of the Uk and world economy. Before academic life I was an economic adviser to Her Majesty's Treasury's External Division and editor of the National Institute Review. From 1976 to 1997, I was the Edward Gonner Professor of Applied Economics at Liverpool University where I founded and directed the Liverpool Research Group in Macroeconomics; this built the ‘Liverpool Model’ of the UK, which was influential in forecasting and policy analysis during the 1980s. I was a member of Monopolies and Mergers Commission 1990-96; and one of the H M Treasury's Panel of Forecasters ('6 Wise Men') January 1993-December 1996. I was honoured with a C.B.E. for services to economics in 1996. My economic interests include monetary, trade, labour market and macro economics and modelling. Recent books include: Should Britain leave the EU? An economic analysis of a troubled relationship, (with S. Gupta, V. Mahambare, V. Le and Y. Xu) Edward Elgar, second edition, (December 2015); and (with David Meeanagh) 'After Brexit, what next? Trade, regulation and economic growth.' Edward Elgar, December 2020.

Publications

Teaching

I teach postgraduate students macroeconomics.  My course for MSc students in International economics, Banking and Finance and in Financial Economics reviews different modern approaches to understanding the economy’s behaviour and analysing the role of monetary and fiscal policy. The main textbook for the course is P. Minford and D. Peel - Advanced Macroeconomics: A Primer, Edward Elgar, second edition, 2019. 

My course for first year PHD students (Advanced Macroeconomics- An Introduction) covers two semesters in 40 hours of lectures. It introduces students to the main elements of traditional macroeconomics and then goes on to representative agent models and to analysis of policy with them. The textbook used, which the lectures follow closely, is P. Minford and D. Peel ‘Advanced macroeconomics- a primer’ Edward Elgar, 2019, second edition.

PhD supervision research interests

• Macroeconomic modelling and forecasting
• Macroeconomic policy

My recent publications can be seen at https://econpapers.repec.org/RAS/pmi137.htm

Here are some of my recent papers:

News and why it is not shocking: The role of micro-foundations Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 2020, 66, (C)

A long-commodity-cycle model of the world economy over a century and a half — Making bricks with little straw Energy Economics, 2019, 81, (C), 503-518

Testing DSGE Models by Indirect Inference: a Survey of Recent Findings Open Economies Review, 2019, 30, (3), 593-620 

Testing Part of a DSGE Model by Indirect Inference Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2019, 81, (1), 178-194

The effects of Brexit on the UK economy The World Economy, 2019, 42, (1), 57-67  View citations (6) See also Working Paper (2019)

Supervision

I am currently supervising 12 PhD students who are in the process of preparing their research and theses.

Five of my students have recently submitted or are about to submit their PhD theses: Emmanual Azom, Aigerim Rysbayeva, Juyi Lyu, Zhiqi Zhao. and Jonathan Lloyd.

Past projects